Comparison of Gaussian process modeling software

Gaussian process fitting, or kriging, is often used to create a model from a set of data. Many available software packages do this, but we show that very different results can be obtained from different packages even when using the same data and model. We describe the parameterization, features, and optimization used by eight different fitting packages that run on four different platforms. We then compare these eight packages using various data functions and data sets, revealing that there are stark differences between the packages. In addition to comparing the prediction accuracy, the predictive variance--which is important for evaluating precision of predictions and is often used in stopping criteria--is also evaluated

Data Farming: The Meanings and Methods Behind the Metaphor

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.36819/SW21.002Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop 2021Data farming captures the notion of purposeful data generation from simulation models. The ready availability of computing power has fundamentally changed the way simulation and other computational models can be used to provide insights to decision makers. Large-scale designed experiments let us grow the simulation output efficiently and effectively. We can explore massive input spaces, use statistical and visualization techniques to uncover interesting features of complex response surfaces, and explicitly identify cause-and-effect relationships. Nonetheless, there are many opportunities for research methods that could further enhance this process. I will begin with a brief overview of key differences between physical and simulation experiments, as well as current data farming capabilities and their relationship to emerging techniques in data science and analytics. I will then share some thoughts about opportunities and challenges for further improving the state of the art, and transforming the state of the practice, in this domain

Very large fractional factorial and central composite designs

The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1113316.1113320We present a concise representation of fractional factorials and an algorithm to quickly generate resolution V designs. The description is based on properties of a complete, orthogonal discrete-values basis set called Walsh functions. We tabulate two-level resolution V fractional factorial designs, as well as central composite designs allowing estimation of full second-order models, for experiments involving up to 120 factors. The simple algorithm provided can be used to characterize even larger designs, and a fast Walsh transform method quickly generates design matrices from our representation

Smart experimental designs provide military decision-makers with new insights from agent-based simulations

Naval Postgraduate School RESEARCH, 13, 2, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 2003, pp. 20-21, 57-59, 63

Percepciones de docentes acerca de las experiencias de desarrollo profesional: una preocupación que continúa

Teachers’ perceptions of professional development experiences related to process, content, and context were explored to better address leadership preparation needs. Teachers responded to the Professional Development Questionnaire, three demographic variables (teaching experience, Title 1 status, and current grade level) pertaining to the individual, and one open-ended comment field. A total of 327 teachers from a large western school district in the United States responded. The findings indicated that there were no significant differences for the three demographic grouping variables. Overall, results revealed low mean values, indicating that teachers disagreed or strongly disagreed with statements related to their professional development experiences. Teachers also indicated that their own building administrators did not value professional development. Finally, teachers’ perceptions of professional development also suggested that professional development topics were irrelevant, and that they were not provided with enough time to integrate topics into their current practice.Se exploraron las percepciones de maestros acerca de las experiencias de desarrollo profesional relacionadas con el proceso, el contenido y el contexto, a fin de responder mejor a las necesidades de preparación para el liderazgo. Maestros respondieron al Cuestionario de Desarrollo Profesional, tres variables de agrupaciones demográficas (experiencia enseñando, estado de Título 1, y nivel de grado actual) pertenecientes al individuo, y un campo de comentarios de composición abierta. Un total de 327 maestros de un distrito escolar grande del occidente de los Estados Unidos respondió. Los resultados revelaron que no había diferencias significativas para las tres variables de agrupación demográfica. En general, los resultados revelaron bajos valores promedios, indicando que los maestros estaban en desacuerdo, o fuertemente en desacuerdo con las declaraciones relacionadas a sus experiencias de desarrollo profesional. Los maestros también indicaron que sus propios administradores no valoraban el desarrollo profesional. Finalmente, las percepciones de los maestros de desarrollo profesional también sugirieron que los temas al respecto eran irrelevantes y que ellos no tenían suficiente tiempo para integrar dichas cuestiones en su práctica cotidiana

Acquisition of Additive Manufacturing Capabilities for Expeditionary Operations

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsAdditive manufacturing (AM) has the potential to fundamentally change how military expeditionary operations are conducted. By manufacturing spare parts in remote sites, rather than relying on lengthy and extensive supply chains or remaining tethered to an “iron mountain” of logistics support, the expeditionary units have the potential to be more agile, to maintain their readiness at high levels while deployed, and to extend their operational reach. AM has enjoyed success in a number of specialty fields. Potential benefits for expeditionary units include achieving higher readiness at lower cost, because deployed units can use AM to create replacement parts at or near the point of demand, rather than either relying on carrying large quantities of spare parts or dealing with long lead times for replacements. Another potential benefit is the ability to reduce wastage of the materials used in the three-dimensional (3D) printing process and subsequent post-treatments by only producing what is needed. Finally, if the same compounds can be used to manufacture a variety of parts, AM could help forward-deployed units maintain a high level of readiness while dramatically reducing their logistics footprint. To realize this potential, program managers have several decisions to make. They must determine how best to acquire AM capabilities, what classes of components are suitable for AM, whether the resulting structural and reliability are comparable for components made using AM and current methods, and how differences in reliability may affect the supply chain and readiness levels. If the suitability and reliability are not factored into the decision-making process, then AM may end up being a costly and largely redundant logistics system running in parallel with the current supply chain, rather than being a transformative capability.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Improving Navy MPTE Studies with Model-Driven Big Data

The goal of this research was to improve upon the ability of OPNAV N1 analysts to quickly and efficiently obtain experiment-based information from their computational models. The enhanced information will enable N1’s analysts to better support Navy leadership in resource and policy decisions that shape the future Navy and help it retain and develop its most talented Sailors. This project built on previous collaborations with N1 using data farming to enhance the information gleaned from their Navy talent management models, such as the Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) model, the Production Resource Optimization (PRO) model, and the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM). During this research period, (1) Ensign William Desousa (2015) investigated the behavior of economic inputs in NTFSM; (2) Lieutenant Peter Bazalaki (2016) used the new data farming capabilities we developed in OSAM to investigate Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) inventory across a breadth of possibilities; and (3) Lieutenant Allison Hogarth (2016) built, tested, and demonstrated a user interface in Excel that enables users of the PRO model to automatically execute a sophisticated design of experiments—the tool that enables this new capability is known as Production Resource Optimization Model With Experimental Design (PROMWED). In addition to working with the student-officers, the faculty supporting this project performed an empirical study of statistical software packages that may provide better understanding of the high-dimensional behavior of manpower models in the future (Erickson, Ankenman, & Sanchez 2016).Naval Research ProgramPrepared for Topic Sponsor: OPNAV N1; Research POC Name: Mr. Ian AndersoNPS-N16-N154-

Advancing the Application of Design of Experiments to Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model Data

NPS NRP Executive SummaryNavy leadership is interested in initiatives that can potentially increase the responsiveness of campaign analysis. Simulation-based campaign analysis is used to measure risk for investment options in how best to equip, organize, supply, maintain, train, and employ our naval forces. The Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) is a stochastic simulation model used to support campaign analysis by the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force. Building, testing, running, and analyzing campaign scenarios in STORM is a complex, time-consuming process. A simulated campaign may span months, involve scores of ships and battalions, hundreds of aircraft and installations, all executing thousands of interconnected missions involving numerous events in time and space. Creating, testing, and approving the inputs for a single design point (DP) requires a significant investment in analysts’ time and computing resources. Consequently, there are limits on the number of DPs that can be produced, executed, and analyzed during a study’s timeframe.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098).Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Efficiently Using Families of Diverse Models to Better Inform Decision Makers in Objective and Repeatable Ways

NPS NRP Project PosterThe Marine Corps seeks to integrate analytical processes that develop actionable insights for decision makers across its enterprise. One supporting goal in this endeavor is to develop a methodology for implementing a wargame-analytic continuum by formally linking outcomes of wargames with more traditional constructive closed-form simulations. The primary research objective is to explore methods and tools that provide the greatest utility when integrating wargames with constructive simulations. As part of this, we will develop, assess, and document a translation/transformation process used to convert a human-in-the-loop wargaming activity into the analytic domain, highlighting judgment calls and issues, and how they were resolved. The research will be done in support of one or more current Marine Corps analysis issues. The SEED Center will focus on constructive simulations that augment other analyses by other organizations. Candidate analysis "partners" include OAD, MCWL, and NPS. Wargaming activities may include NPS, MCWL, and others. MCWL live-fire events may also be leveraged or informed. In addition to regular reviews, the research deliverables will include: (1) A final brief and/or technical report and student theses (if applicable); (2) All findings, methods, and data used in the study, as well as guidance on how the Marines can most efficiently acquire and organically use wargames within an analytic continuum; and (3) Appropriate conference or journal papers related to this research.Marine Corps Modeling & Simulation Office (MCMSO)HQMC Combat Development and Integration (CD&I)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.